As the currency analysts Barclays Capital, commodity currencies are traded today, under pressure, however, the Australian dollar took the brunt. Pair AUD / USD tested support trendline at 0.91, setting a two-week minimum at 0.9060, but then rebounded somewhat. The bank's strategy pay attention to the fact that the trend line from the March lows so far been a reliable support in the pair - a breakthrough that line will lead to greater downward correction AUD / USD. At the moment pair AUD / USD traded at 0.9115.
Friday, November 20, 2009
The fall of the New Zealand dollar and more than 200 points
The breakdown of 0.7310/00 level of support has increased the bear moods and currently the exchange rate reached 0.7240 before the intended target.
NZD / USD
Exchange Rates entrenched below the average with periods of 89, 144, 34 and 55, which are now a number of strong resistance levels 0.7330, 0.7380 and 0.7400/20.
The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone below its signal line, continues to decline, and thereby sends a signal to sell the New Zealand dollar.
Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold does not give clear signals.
Therefore, as a confirmation that the market would be exacerbated bearish sentiment, we can only wait for the breakdown support level 0.7240, which could open the way to a local minimum of 0.7100.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7270/80, 0.7300/10, 0.7340/50, 0.7370/80, 0.7400
Current Price: 0.7239
Support levels: 0.7220/00, 0.7160/50, 0.7110/00, 0.7080, 0.7050
The problems of the dollar - this is good news for the markets in Europe
Almost all predicted the dollar fall. He has even fewer friends than a passenger aircraft, which during the flight is suspected sick swine flu.
Investor and owner of billions of dollars in George Soros (George Soros) said that this situation creates a "dangerous instability. IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kan (Dominique Strauss-Kahn), indicates the appearance of a new global world's dominant currency in the decade.
The reasons are simple: the U.S. economy is in bad shape, the Fed prints money wildly, the budget deficit out of control.
It is hard to believe that in five years the dollar will have the same dominant role he had on global markets after World War II.
The depreciation of the dollar in Europe is often seen as a threat. In fact, all exactly the opposite: the end of the dollar's dominance will increase the importance of the European economy.
Evidence of problems of the dollar, we can see everywhere. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to mutter about the need to abandon the dollar in transactions with the oil and switch to one or more other currencies. This may not happen immediately, but it would be naive to believe that this will not happen in principle.
Central banks are beginning to revise their views on how much of their stocks to keep the dollar, particularly because the Fed does not stop the printing press. For example, India, has just bought gold at $ 6.7 billion from the IMF to diversify their reserves. Expect many such transitions, especially from new emerging economies in the coming years.
The end of
Objective debate about the end of the dollar's dominance has not yet happened. After WWII the U.S. became a strong economy. Now they - one of several powerful economic blocs. There is no reason for the U.S. to occupy a special position.
An interesting question is what the consequences. The gradual decline of the dollar - another source of instability in the world, in which it and so abound. The depreciation of the dollar in Europe and the rest of the world - is an opportunity to strengthen its own economy.
There are three reasons for this.
First, the primacy of the dollar allowed the U.S. to cope with a much larger trade deficit than any other country could afford, not leading to the collapse of its currency. It was a kind of tax that was levied with the rest of the world and allowed the U.S. to consume more and save less than they should, at a time when other countries were forced to save more and consume less.
"Tax" dollar
Because Europe is richer in other countries, this tax is mostly paid by Europeans. Any tax cut stimulates the economy, so the end of the tax dollar will do the same for Europe.
Secondly, the decline of the dollar will inevitably stimulate the global trading volatility, since only the special status of the dollar makes a huge U.S. trade deficit is acceptable. This should reduce the imbalance in trade between the U.S. and China. It will also reduce a massive trade surplus in Germany, as the strong euro complicates the sale of goods abroad. Even with the rapid growth of China, Germany remained the largest exporter of goods in the world in 2008. If China will assume this role in the near future, Germany could begin to consume and import more, which should benefit the whole of Europe.
Finally, we do not know what will replace the dollar. "Gold bugs" (supporters of preserving the functions of monetary gold) insist on their candidate, and maybe they will win. But most likely it will be the basket of currencies. One of them will be the Euro. The euro zone is currently the only strong economy, with the right amount of liquidity to meet the dollar.
Free Loans
For that to be a reserve currency to pay the price. Your Bank should worry about the consequences of its policies in the context of the whole world, not just the domestic economy. Of course, there are advantages. In fact: the rest of the world gives you an interest-free loan. And your currency is stronger than might.
With its aging population, Europe is the greater part of the next 30 years will live on their capital. With so many retirees, the region will be required to spend more than it saves. A stronger euro makes imports cheaper than those things that work force has ceased to produce.
Most of us do not like change, and people have a tendency to hold on to something with which they are familiar much longer than it was viable. But the dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency, is complete. And although Europe has to fear, there are also things which you can enjoy.
Investor and owner of billions of dollars in George Soros (George Soros) said that this situation creates a "dangerous instability. IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kan (Dominique Strauss-Kahn), indicates the appearance of a new global world's dominant currency in the decade.
The reasons are simple: the U.S. economy is in bad shape, the Fed prints money wildly, the budget deficit out of control.
It is hard to believe that in five years the dollar will have the same dominant role he had on global markets after World War II.
The depreciation of the dollar in Europe is often seen as a threat. In fact, all exactly the opposite: the end of the dollar's dominance will increase the importance of the European economy.
Evidence of problems of the dollar, we can see everywhere. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to mutter about the need to abandon the dollar in transactions with the oil and switch to one or more other currencies. This may not happen immediately, but it would be naive to believe that this will not happen in principle.
Central banks are beginning to revise their views on how much of their stocks to keep the dollar, particularly because the Fed does not stop the printing press. For example, India, has just bought gold at $ 6.7 billion from the IMF to diversify their reserves. Expect many such transitions, especially from new emerging economies in the coming years.
The end of
Objective debate about the end of the dollar's dominance has not yet happened. After WWII the U.S. became a strong economy. Now they - one of several powerful economic blocs. There is no reason for the U.S. to occupy a special position.
An interesting question is what the consequences. The gradual decline of the dollar - another source of instability in the world, in which it and so abound. The depreciation of the dollar in Europe and the rest of the world - is an opportunity to strengthen its own economy.
There are three reasons for this.
First, the primacy of the dollar allowed the U.S. to cope with a much larger trade deficit than any other country could afford, not leading to the collapse of its currency. It was a kind of tax that was levied with the rest of the world and allowed the U.S. to consume more and save less than they should, at a time when other countries were forced to save more and consume less.
"Tax" dollar
Because Europe is richer in other countries, this tax is mostly paid by Europeans. Any tax cut stimulates the economy, so the end of the tax dollar will do the same for Europe.
Secondly, the decline of the dollar will inevitably stimulate the global trading volatility, since only the special status of the dollar makes a huge U.S. trade deficit is acceptable. This should reduce the imbalance in trade between the U.S. and China. It will also reduce a massive trade surplus in Germany, as the strong euro complicates the sale of goods abroad. Even with the rapid growth of China, Germany remained the largest exporter of goods in the world in 2008. If China will assume this role in the near future, Germany could begin to consume and import more, which should benefit the whole of Europe.
Finally, we do not know what will replace the dollar. "Gold bugs" (supporters of preserving the functions of monetary gold) insist on their candidate, and maybe they will win. But most likely it will be the basket of currencies. One of them will be the Euro. The euro zone is currently the only strong economy, with the right amount of liquidity to meet the dollar.
Free Loans
For that to be a reserve currency to pay the price. Your Bank should worry about the consequences of its policies in the context of the whole world, not just the domestic economy. Of course, there are advantages. In fact: the rest of the world gives you an interest-free loan. And your currency is stronger than might.
With its aging population, Europe is the greater part of the next 30 years will live on their capital. With so many retirees, the region will be required to spend more than it saves. A stronger euro makes imports cheaper than those things that work force has ceased to produce.
Most of us do not like change, and people have a tendency to hold on to something with which they are familiar much longer than it was viable. But the dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency, is complete. And although Europe has to fear, there are also things which you can enjoy.
Lynn, Bloomberg
November 18
November 18
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States remained at 505 thousand
The number of primary applications for unemployment insurance in the United States remained unchanged compared with the previous week at 505 thousand at present rate is at its lowest level since January of this year, but still falls below 500 thousand, above which it kept for 53 consecutive weeks.
The average value of the index over the past four weeks fell by 6 thousand to 514 thousand number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits decreased by one week to November 7 to 39 thousand to 5.61 million.
The average value of the index over the past four weeks fell by 6 thousand to 514 thousand number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits decreased by one week to November 7 to 39 thousand to 5.61 million.
CBI will continue to cut rates
Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich: Next week, the 24 th of November, a meeting of the Board of Directors of CBI, which, very likely, for the ninth time it was decided to reduce the refinancing rate. Representatives of the Bank has also identified the reasons for such movement. Inflation lower than earlier projections, and perhaps, as predicted by Ignatiev, will be below 10 percent for the year.
In addition, in comments to an earlier meeting of the phrase sounded on the need to reduce the margin for short-term rates in the domestic and foreign markets. Currently the base rate for the U.S., Switzerland and Japan are near zero, while in the euro area - 1%. In Russia refinancing rate currently stands at 9.5%. Of course, the focus should be on the basis of the internal situation, but it allows for mitigation policies.
October results, the annual inflation rate amounted to 9,7%. It is believed that the Central Bank encourages lending, when the basic rate remains below the annual inflation rate. Anticipating a slowdown, and more (9-10% in 2010 and 5-7 in 2012), the central bank will continue to further reduce the rate. It is expected that the rate will be lowered by another 0.5 points to 9%.
Soft monetary policy contributes to a lower inflow of speculative capital into the financial markets, but also supports the real sector, while restraining the growth of the national currency, or contributing to its decline. Thursday Ulyukaev signified that the Bank adheres to the corridor in the 35 - 38 rubles for currency basket of dollars and euros. This morning, her course was near the lower boundary of the corridor. The authorities are prepared to prevent the further growth of our currency by using methods that are traditionally used, and other CB. At a time when other countries are thinking about tightening monetary policy or curtailing incentives, reducing the difference in interest rates in Russia and developed countries will reduce the amount of "hot" speculative capital in the economy.
On the currency basket influenced by two factors: demand for oil and fluctuations in the currency market. In the next month, oil demand will remain weak, that will not develop speculative pressures. Likely rate reduction refinancing on 24 November, and plans to reduce it further, would prevent such rapid growth, which was observed previously. But on the other hand, the euro does not want to grow. So at the end of the level of currency basket is likely to be 35,30-35,50, which is higher than the current marks. The dollar may cost about 29-29,50 pp. Accordingly, the euro may be less than 43 rubles, near 42,80.
In addition, in comments to an earlier meeting of the phrase sounded on the need to reduce the margin for short-term rates in the domestic and foreign markets. Currently the base rate for the U.S., Switzerland and Japan are near zero, while in the euro area - 1%. In Russia refinancing rate currently stands at 9.5%. Of course, the focus should be on the basis of the internal situation, but it allows for mitigation policies.
October results, the annual inflation rate amounted to 9,7%. It is believed that the Central Bank encourages lending, when the basic rate remains below the annual inflation rate. Anticipating a slowdown, and more (9-10% in 2010 and 5-7 in 2012), the central bank will continue to further reduce the rate. It is expected that the rate will be lowered by another 0.5 points to 9%.
Soft monetary policy contributes to a lower inflow of speculative capital into the financial markets, but also supports the real sector, while restraining the growth of the national currency, or contributing to its decline. Thursday Ulyukaev signified that the Bank adheres to the corridor in the 35 - 38 rubles for currency basket of dollars and euros. This morning, her course was near the lower boundary of the corridor. The authorities are prepared to prevent the further growth of our currency by using methods that are traditionally used, and other CB. At a time when other countries are thinking about tightening monetary policy or curtailing incentives, reducing the difference in interest rates in Russia and developed countries will reduce the amount of "hot" speculative capital in the economy.
On the currency basket influenced by two factors: demand for oil and fluctuations in the currency market. In the next month, oil demand will remain weak, that will not develop speculative pressures. Likely rate reduction refinancing on 24 November, and plans to reduce it further, would prevent such rapid growth, which was observed previously. But on the other hand, the euro does not want to grow. So at the end of the level of currency basket is likely to be 35,30-35,50, which is higher than the current marks. The dollar may cost about 29-29,50 pp. Accordingly, the euro may be less than 43 rubles, near 42,80.
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